Pressly-ing Their Luck
By: Arthur Caron
As a Cubs fan, when was the last time you felt confident in a closer?
Aroldis Chapman in 2016?
Wade Davis in 2017?
Or, do you go all the way back to Rod “Shooter” Beck in 1998 – the Cubs last closer to have 50 saves in a season.
Since 2015, the Cubs have had a different primary closer each season. These include Hector Rondon and Wade Davis, who recorded over 30 saves in 2015 and 2017, respectively, and Craig Kimbrel and Adbert Alzolay, who had over 20 saves in 2021 and 2023, respectively.
The Cubs’ choice for closer this year came via trade in the form of 36-year-old, 2-time All-Star, and former World Series Champion, Ryan Pressly. With over 100 saves on his resume, Pressly reportedly wanted a chance to close again after the Astros demoted him to the set-up role following the signing of premier lefty closer Josh Hader.
Pressly got his wish and was traded in late January, after taking a few days to decide to waive his no-trade clause, following a subpar season in several key categories typically relied upon by closers and shutdown relievers—as illustrated in this chart from Baseball Savant.
For context, the stats highlighted in red are among the league leaders such as 2018-2020 when he was one of the best closers in the league. He was among the best in pressure situations. WOBA (weighted on-base average), is a statistic that measures a player’s overall offensive contributions per plate appearance, assigning different weights to various offensive events based on their run-scoring impact.
2024:
Strike out Rate: 23.8%
Walk Rate: 7.4%
ERA: 3.49 with an expected ERA of 3.97
He was lucky, but his luck hasn’t held up as his numbers are alarmingly bad in 6 appearances so far this season.
2025:
Strike Out Rate: 6.7%
Walk Rate: 20%
ERA: 4.50
Expected ERA 5.46
In 5 of his 6 innings pitched he’s allowed at least 2 baserunners, and his WHIP (Walks and Hits Per Inning Pitched) is an alarming 2.5. That means he averages at least 2 baserunners per inning pitched, which isn’t what you’d like in a closer.
So, what is the reason for this sudden change and how long will Counsell ride with the veteran over other available options?
Pressly is getting long in the tooth and in the last 3 seasons, he has been trending downward in several key performance indicators as depicted with the following charts that show his performances from 2023-2025 from Baseball Savant:
His main pitch is down nearly 3 MPH since 2017. With that high walk rate of 20% and a low strikeout rate of just 6.7%, he needs to adjust his mix or find his form before he gets passed in the pecking order by the eventual returns of Tyson Miller and Ryan Brasier from the IL.
He has the pedigree of being a former All-Star and World Series winner along with saving 115 games and having 10.0 WAR overall so he might just need to get comfortable in a new setting. Or maybe he just needs some more time working with the Cubs’ highly respected pitching coach, Tommy Hottovy, and recently hired pitching guru, Tyler Zombro, to help him regain his form.
Does Counsell stick with the veteran who thus far only has 1 loss and no blown saves despite his struggles? Or will he falter and be just another failed experiment closer?
Only time will tell, but time isn’t a luxury that neither he nor the Cubs have because the games in April count the same as the ones in September.