My 26-Man Roster Projections for the 2025 Cubs

By: Arthur Caron

 

As of this writing, we are less than a month from games counting March 18th in Tokyo against the World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. 

 

Now that the Cubs have their full squad assembled in Mesa, who will break camp with the team? I will look at what a healthy 26-man roster could look like, who I’d have in the lineup, the rotation, and the bullpen. Since I will only be looking at the 40-man roster, Matt Shaw will be added to it before the season starts and some players will be optioned back to the minors or DFAd/Traded. 

 

This lineup also assumes Nico Hoerner doesn’t miss any time recovering from off-season wrist surgery, although I think him playing in Tokyo on March 18th and 19th is unlikely. Giving him the extra time to heal and letting him debut when the Cubs play Arizona on March 27th seems like the safer, more conservative route. 

 

Everyday Lineup:

 

1. LF Happ

He had a .340 OBP when leading off last season in over 300 plate appearances

 

2. 2B Hoerner

He had limited chances in the 2-hole last season (5 PAs); however, he had a .333 average and a .404 OBP with a runner on the previous year. His speed will also be a weapon for the middle of the lineup. 

 

3. RF Tucker 

They always say to have your best hitter bat 3rd. Tucker hit .312 with a .424 OBP and 7 homers in over 100 plate appearances in the 3-hole last season.

 

4. DH Suzuki

Hitting clean-up last year, Suzuki had a .271 average with 5 homers and a .352 OBP. Coming off a career-high 21 homers and being a primary DH should help him improve his 3.6 WAR and raise his WRC+ where he was a 138 (100 is average) even with a -2 run value on defense.

 

5. 1B Busch

Here is where the spot can flip. Busch was better at hitting 6th last season when he hit .291 with 8 homers, but I think having him hit 5th ahead of Shaw could let the rookie adjust without the pressure to produce right away. Busch did have a respectable .340 OBP and 5 homers hitting 5th last season,

 

6. 3B Shaw

Shaw will be given every chance to man the hot corner most of the time this season. Shaw had a .355 average in his first at-bat of a game last season, and his .395 OBP throughout the minors last season will surely help move the lineup along or start an inning with a bang. If he proves to make contact and can reproduce his OPS and lower his 18% K rate from last season he could use his contact speed combo (31 stolen bases last season) and could be a carbon copy of his favorite player growing up, Dustin Pedroia.

 

7. SS Swanson

  Swanson was slotted 7th more than any spot last season. Although he only had a .221 average and .303 OBP, he hit 6 homers from this spot and his most RBIs with 31. Dansby, entering his 10th season in the majors, has been all over the lineup in his career. In 2022 he mostly hit 2nd for the Atlanta Braves and clubbed 15 homers, while hitting .277. If he can raise his average back to that level from the .243 average in his 2 years with the Cubs he can certainly rise higher in the order, but having him here with a contact player like Shaw in front of him could put him in a position to excel. He hit .292 with a runner on 1st last year and an otherworldly .417 with runners at 1st and 3rd last season.

 

   8. C Amaya

He only hit .242 from the 8th spot last season, but post all-star break he hit .271 with 5 homers. I’d look for him to lean more toward that because once he was given the full-time load at catcher his bat started to come around.

 

   9. CF Crow-Armstrong

PCA hit mostly 8th last season, but now that he will be roaming center on an everyday basis all bets are off. Having him 9th will be like having another lead-off hitter to either start a rally or make life difficult on a weary starter. I could envision him stealing 35-40 bases if he can build on the end of last season when he had OBPs of .375 in August and .299 in September. If he can build on that hot finish, his speed and baserunning ability could catapult him into the leadoff spot. His 99th-percentile speed and 98th-percentile baserunning would make up for his lower average and OPS if it means he gets an extra at-bat in the 9th. 

 

Bench 4 players:

 

1. Catcher Carson Kelly

The veteran free-agent catcher will help spell Miguel Amaya. He was in the 86th percentile in caught stealing last season and would be a great mentor to Amaya.

 

2. Utility Jon Berti

He’s not flashy but could be the 2025 version of Ben Zobrist. He can play anywhere in the field effectively, making the routine play 97% of the time over his career. 

 

3. 3B Gage Workman

Workman, picked in the Rule 5 draft, either needs to be on the 26-man roster all season or sold back to Detroit for $50k. Workman is the only lefty bench bat and should have a role as a backup 3rd baseman and late-inning pinch hitter.

 

4. 1st/3rd/DH Justin Turner 

The grizzly-bearded 40-year-old veteran Turner had a .354 OBP last season. He excels in his career pulling the ball and hitting a robust .374 on balls hit to left and .352 on balls hit to center. That left-center field gap at Wrigley could be a nice landing pad for Turner to aim for.

 

Optioned to Minors: 

1. Infielder Ben Cowles

The 25-year-old acquired at the trade deadline last season from the Yankees has never been above AA. He does have some skills like hitting .294 and having a .372 OBP, however, he’ll need to prove that wasn’t a fluke and if he can, ending the year in AAA isn’t out of the question.

 

2. Outfielder Owen Caissie

Caissie, the Cubs top outfield prospect and number 54 overall in the MLB Top 100, won’t turn 23 until July. He spent all of last season in AAA and hit .278 with a .375 OBP. If either Happ or Tucker goes down for any length of time, look for him to get a call-up. Short of that, unless he forces the Cubs’ hand with a hot spring, he’s going to start the season in AAA. However, I wouldn’t expect him to stay there much past Memorial Day if he continues to maintain his high OBP, and can cut his strikeout rate down below 28%.

 

3. Outfielder Kevin Alcantara

The Jaguar, as he’s called, stands 6’6” and a slender 188 lbs. He shot through 3 levels last season starting the season in AA and ending with a cup of coffee in the majors playing in 3 games and getting a hit. He could even be in contention to break camp with the team. He’s the only natural CF that could replace PCA if he were to need an IL stay this season. Hitting 14 homers with 14 stolen bases across the minors last year, he’s got the skills to make an impact if the 22-year-old can control the strikeout rate which was at 29% in AAA.

 

DFAd/Traded: 

1. Infielder Vidal Brujan 

He will most likely be released to make room for Matt Shaw on the 40-man roster.

Rotation: 

1. Imanaga

Shota burst onto the scene last season with his pinpoint control, walking only 28 in 173 innings, having a 2.91 ERA, and winning 15 games. He’s going to be given a start in Tokyo in front of his native countryman and will surely pitch well as he was 4-0 with a 0.98 ERA in April last season and 1-0 in 2 starts against the Dodgers as well. Shota has been announced as the opening day starter on March 18th in Tokyo

2. Steele

Steele has never had an ERA over 3.20. He won 16 games and had 30 starts in 2023. With only a 1.1 WHIP last season in 130 innings. If he can stay healthy there’s no reason he can’t pitch like an ace.

    3. Taillon

Taillon won 12 games last season and looks to build on a 3.24 ERA. The imposing 6’5″ righty walked less than 5% of the batters he faced last season. I like the idea of having Taillon here because throwing 3 straight lefties in a series could diminish returns after teams are geared up for them. He also had a 98 percentile fastball run rate (measures fastball effectiveness) and walked less than 5% of batters last season.

    4. Boyd

Boyd is entering his first year in Chicago having only started 8 games last season. However, in those games, he had a 2.72 ERA and struck out 27% of the batters he faced. 

    5. Rea

Rea signed a 1-year deal before the season and should get the first crack at the 5th starter spot. Counsell is familiar with him in their time together in Milwaukee and although not flashy and can be bitten by the long ball having given up 29 last season, he is a veteran who can eat innings and take the ball every 5th day. He won 12 games last year with a 4.29 ERA in 167 innings.

Bullpen: 8 Players 

Swingman:

Javier Assad

His ERA rose from 3.27 pre-all-star break to 4.38 after. He only got into the 7th inning once in 29 starts. That could be extra taxing on a bullpen knowing your starter can’t go more than 5 innings. It could also allow him to tighten his pitch mix and drop his cutter and four-seamers which were both hit at over a .300 average. His Sinker, Curve, and Sweeper were all hit to a less than .240 average. Assad did excel as a swingman in 2023 pitching a 3.02 ERA and making 22 appearances out of the pen to just 10 starts.

 

Middle Relief

 

Tyson Miller

Miller had a very nice .81 WHIP in 62 innings last season. He walked less than 5% of the batters he faced last season.

 

Ryan Brasier

Brasier coming over from the Dodgers slots into a fireman of sorts with his Sinker, helping him to produce a ground ball percentage at over 40% that could be key with the potential of the Cubs’ infield defense.

 

Ben Brown

Brown’s stats scream late inning or setup guy. His fastball averages 96 mph and he tops the 87th percentile in both K’s and Whiff percentage. The Cubs bullpen lacks a fireballer and Brown has that in spades. Brown could be the first man up if Colin Rea falters in as the 5th starter or if the Cubs want to go with 6 man rotation he could go 3-4 innings at max effort followed by Assad.

 

Eli Morgan

Morgan posted a sub-2 ERA and a tidy WHIP of 1.08 with Cleveland last season. His Change-Up ranks as one of the best in the league, getting 41 inches of vertical drop and garnering a positive 3-run value. 

 

 

Caleb Thielbar

Thielbar, the veteran free agent from Minnesota, will compete with Luke Little to be the lone lefty that starts the season in the pen, Little has minor league options and Thielbar doesn’t, unless he gets rocked this spring the team will give him every chance to break camp with the team. 

 

Set-up/Closer  

Porter Hodge

Hodge made his MLB debut last season and helped close out a combined No-Hitter in September. He had 9 saves with a .88 WHIP last season. He could learn from newly acquired veteran Ryan Pressly and help close on occasion.

 

Ryan Pressly

The veteran righty was relegated to the set-up role when Josh Hader was signed by Houston last season. Before that, he had consecutive 30-save seasons including closing out a World Series clincher. Pressly has generated an over 50% ground ball rate in every season except one since 2021, and his curveball last season was over a 7 positive run value each of the last 2 seasons.

Optioned to Minors: 

1. LHP Jordan Wicks 

Wicks started just 10 games last season as he dealt with injuries. In his starts, he wasn’t very effective. He pitched to a 5.48 ERA and allowed nearly 4 walks per nine. Wicks could benefit from working on control although his Change-up was excellent only allowing a .170 BA against it. 3 of his 4 other pitches were hit at over .400, Hopefully, newly added pitching guru Tyler Zombro, can get the 25-year-old Southpaw a good pitch mix, and help him cut those walks down. If he can, Wicks could be a spot starter when IL stints are needed. 

2. RHP Nate Pearson 

Pearson has a blazing fastball averaging 97 MPH and was effective in the bullpen last year after being acquired mid-season. His above 69th percentile K and Whiff rate would be a good weapon, however, his four-seam fastball his primary pitch was hit for a .310 average, and a 45% hard hit percentage. If he ditches his negative value sinker (-3.5) and develops an off-speed pitch (change-up or circle change) to go with his plus value pitches (four-seam, curveball, and slider) he could be a real high-leverage weapon, especially if Ben Brown eventually claims the 5th starter role. 

3. LHP Luke Little 

The imposing lefty started last season in the Majors pitching in 30 games and having a respectable 3.46 ERA. He stands at a towering 6’8” and throws a fastball averaging 95 MPH, paired with a sweeper that opponents hit at a poultry .048 average and whiffed 54% percent of the time. If he can lower the walk rate, allowing 18 in just 26 innings, and maintain his 72% ground ball rate, he could be up before too long especially if the veteran lefty Thielbar falters or is ineffective. 

4. RHP Daniel Palencia

Appearing in 10 games last season and having a 6.14 ERA, Palencia could benefit from some seasoning in AAA. His 98 MPH fastball average will play but he needs to harness the control allowing 12 in just 14 innings. His slider was effective being hit to a less than .135 average, if he can cut down the walks he’ll find himself up sometime midseason.

5. RHP Jack Neely 

Neely, with a mustache that Magnum P.I. would approve of, was acquired last season and appeared in 6 games pitching to a 9 ERA. Neely has a fastball average of 96 MPH, but it was hit to a .429 average. He will need to develop some kind of off-speed pitch to go along with his effective slider hit to only a .167 clip. I’d have him toy with a sinker or change-up to pair with his four-seam fastball to change the eye level of the hitter. 

6. RHP Gavin Hollowell 

Hollowell only pitched 1.1 innings with the Cubs last season after spending 2023 with Colorado allowing an 18% home run rate and pitching to a mile-high ERA of 5.88. Look for him to start the season in AAA and see if he can be effective in a 7th or 8th-inning role. If that’s the case, his fastball/slider mix would be useful in the mid to late innings later in the season. 

7. RHP Caleb Kilian 

Kilian was acquired from San Francisco in the Kris Bryant trade and has bounced between the majors and minors. He pitched in 10 MLB innings last season with a 4.22 ERA. Now 27 years old, it’s likely he will start the season in AAA most likely in the rotation. If he can find another pitch to go with his effective four-seam fastball and cutter, then he could be called on for spot starts later in the year.

8. RHP Cody Poteet 

Poteet, acquired for Cody Bellinger from the Yankees this off-season, did start 4 games for them last season and pitched to an effective 2.22 ERA. If he can build on that with an effective year in the AAA rotation the 29-year-old could be a September call-up when rosters expand or be called on for a start if an IL stint is needed for an MLB starter. 

9. RHP Ethan Roberts 

Roberts, who has become a CubsCon favorite for holding court in the lobby and trading cards with fans, pitched in 21 games to a 3.71 ERA last year with an 82% LOB ( left on base) percentage and allowing a 1.01 homer per 9 innings rate. He has a decent sweeper hit to a .262 average and has a very effective though seldom used sinker (only thrown 8% of the time) with opponents achieving only a .125 average against it. His cutter, which is thrown 32% of the time, is hit to a .382 average. If he fixes that mix in AAA, he could be much more effective and be back in the majors shortly.

 

DFAd/Traded: 

These players will be either traded or released as they are out of minor-league options.

1. RHP Keegan Thompson 

Thompson pitched effectively last year to a 2.67 ERA in 24 games, but with the additions of Morgan, Brasier, and Pressly he got caught in the numbers game. Since he has no minor league options left and is 29, it’s either make the out of spring or he will be gone. If a reliever goes down in the spring, Thompson would almost be assured to get that spot on the roster assuming he performs well over the next few weeks in Arizona.

2. RHP Julian Merryweather 

Merryweather was bitten by the injury bug last season, only pitching 15 innings after a stellar 2023 when he pitched in 69 games and carved out a nice role for himself in the 7th/8th inning. He too is caught up in the number crunch having more proven or effective righties in front of him on the depth chart. He is more proven than Thompson, but he’s only appeared in more than 25 games twice in his career (2022 and 2023). being 33 years old and having no options, he will most likely be a roster casualty at the end of spring. 

Cubs Fans! This is how I would assemble a 26-man roster if everyone was healthy. I think a lot of these players will have a chance to contribute throughout the year with injuries and trades. We’d love to hear how you’d construct the 2025 Cubs! Leave your thoughts in the comments below.