Armchair GM: To Spend or Not to Spend

By: Arthur Caron

After a rough start to the season in Japan, the Cubs have a few days until they attempt to play spoiler for the Arizona Diamondbacks home-opener on March 27th. 

In that downtime, I would like to see team President of Operations Jed Hoyer and General Manager Carter Hawkins look to get ahead of the game and reallocate some of the money they have left for this season and next. According to Fan Graphs, the Cubs have a tax payroll of roughly $215 million, and the first tax threshold is $241 million. 

If the Cubs want to save a chunk for potential mid-season pickups, that’s a good idea. However, I would like to see one of two scenarios in which to spend the money.

To be clear, anything they do with my presented scenarios would be affected by the probable lockout/strike looming after the 2026 season. With that in mind, and the fact that there are too many variables to navigate, I will be just using averages for salaries, so no escalating or signing bonuses. 

Jed and Co. gave out extensions just before Opening Day 2023  to Ian Happ for 3 years, $61 million, and to Nico Hoerner for 3 years, $35 million. If they are willing to do that again, I would like to see them extend both Justin Steele and Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Scenario 1: Extending Steele and PCA

Locking up a homegrown potential Ace and a fan favorite in Justin Steele would be a forward-thinking move that would benefit the team in the present and future. The cost of business has gone up and the Cubs would be wise to strike before Steele puts together another All-Star season and his asking price doubles.

Right now he’s scheduled to make just $6.5 million and has two more years of arbitration in which his salary, if he performs and pitches to his averages, will be $18-20 million. Steele has had averages in his three full seasons as a starter of 26 starts, 8.3 wins, 142 innings, 145 Ks, and 2.4 WAR. According to a Google search, 1 WAR in baseball is calculated as being worth $8 million, so with that math Steele should be compensated at around $18.5-19 million. 

Steele is 28 and an All-Star lefty. Cubs fans should know pitching doesn’t grow on trees, and locking one up with All-Star and CY Young potential should be a priority. I say an offer of 5 years, $110 million is both fair and a good bonus for Steele forgoing the last two years of arbitration. That’s $22 million a year and puts Steele in the top 20 paid starting pitchers. 

PCA, however, is a bit more tricky. There’s so much he brings to the table with his youth and dynamic that the Cubs would have to go at least 8 years and upwards of 12 Million AAV to get him to agree to anything with them now for the long haul.

PCA is only 23 and has already flashed his speed and base running prowess, along with a stellar glove that will surely be gold in centerfield. There have been young outfielders given early extensions by their teams: 

Julio Rodriguez, Mariners: 12 years, $209 million AVG: $17.4 million

Michael Harris, Braves: 8 years, $72 million AVG: $9 million

Jackson Chourio Brewers: 8 years, $82 million AVG: $10.25 million

These players were around PCA’s age of 23 or younger when given the extensions and are comparable to him stat-wise. Harris and Chourio compare favorably to PCA and Rodriguez to me is his ceiling if he can get on base at a steady clip. 

WAR AVGs for the last 3 seasons: 

 Harris: 3.8 

Chourio: 3.7 ( only 1 season)

Rodriguez: 5.17 

PCA: 2.3 

PCA improved his WAR from -.1 to 2.3, having just over 400 ABs and stealing 27 bases while hitting 10 homers. I’m not asking for another 2.4 WAR jump but I don’t think that being a 4-5 WAR player with his exceptional defense is out of the question. So I guess something between Chourio and Rodriguez is fair. 8 years, $88 million for an average of $11 million would lock PCA up, and with the uncertain status of the other main outfielders, Happ and Suzuki are free agents after 2026, and Kyle Tucker is set to hit the market after this season, unless…

Scenario 2: Paying King Tuck!

This off-season’s prize acquisition was former World Series winner and 3-time All-Star, Kyle Tucker. Tucker is 28 and an impending free agent who, if the Cubs want to keep him, will be the biggest contract ever given out by the Cubs, potentially doubling that of the 7 years, $177 million contract recently given to Dansby Swanson. 

Tucker has hovered around 5 WAR per season in the last four years, and that would make him worth $40 million on the open market. Spotrac has his market value at $27.5 million, probably because he only played 78 games last season and still had 4.7 WAR with 23 homers. 

Tucker is the best all-around player that the Cubs have had since a prime Kris Bryant and the best lefty outfielder since Billy Williams. He’s making only $16.5 million this season. To keep Tucker and justify trading away former 1st round pick Cam Smith, who might make the Astros Opening Day roster, the Cubs need to go into their Scrooge McDuck vault and start filling up the Brinks truck. 

His estimated production won’t come cheap. He compares well to some of the bigger-named outfielders in MLB. 

Ronald Acuna Jr. Braves: 2021-2023 AVG: 26 HR, 69 RBI, 39 Steals 4.8 WAR

Salary: 8 years, $100 million AVG: $12.5 million

Fernando Tatis Jr: Padres: 2021-2024 (suspended for 2022) AVG: 29 HR, 75 RBI, 22 Steals 4.8 WAR 

Salary: 14 years, $340 million AVG: $24 million

George Springer Blue Jays: 2021-2023 AVG: 22 HR, 66 RBI, 12 Steals, 2.8 WAR

Springer will be the 6th highest-paid outfielder at just over $24 million in 2025. He signed his deal at 31 after leaving Houston in free agency, while the other two, Acuna Jr. and Tatis Jr., signed their deals at a much younger age with the clubs they debuted with. Tucker is an equal player to the younger two and is younger and much better overall than the aging Springer. 

I wouldn’t expect Tucker to get over $450 million unless it’s for 14 Years which would bring the AAV to $32 million, and I wouldn’t think, unless he has an MVP-type season, that teams would offer that.

I think a reasonable and fair offer would be 9 years and $370 million for an AAV of $41 million, making him the 2nd highest paid outfielder ($41 million AAV, behind Juan Soto). That seems like a lot and it would bring the Cubs out of their tight-fisted comfort zone, but at 28, Tucker is entering his prime. 

If he averages over 5 WAR per season and still hasn’t achieved his prime, then the sky’s the limit and the Cubs can’t let him hit free agency because a bidding war could drive the price up past $400 million. 

I think the most likely path of the two expressed is an extension for Steele and PCA. I think some fans aren’t sold on them yet and want the known commodity in Tucker. 

Where do you stand? Do you think the Cubs will keep the money and try to load up at the deadline? Or just add it to the vault and hope that this team is enough to convince Tucker to come back at their price