Replacing An Ace

By: Arthur Caron

Cubs fans have had their fabled resiliency tested early thus far. From the 0-2 start in Tokyo to multiple late-inning leads blown, and now as winners of four straight series against quality teams, everything was starting to click. Then, the rug was pulled out from under the fan base. Team leader and lefty ace Justin Steele, who felt discomfort following seven shutout innings against the Texas Rangers last week, is out for the remainder of the season to undergo left elbow surgery. 

How will the Cubs replace the All-Star lefty at the top of the rotation? Will they use the depth in the organization and ride with a combination of Colin Rea, Jordan Wicks now, and potentially Javier Assad once he gets healthy again? Or will they use the prizes of a top 10 rated farm system to get a top-end starter or two to replace the missing production and raise the floor of what has been a pretty solid helping the team get out to a 12-8 start and they currently are in first in the NL Central? 

I have 3 trade proposals using Baseball Trade Values, using its Trade Simulator that gives values to players based on their contracts, performance as well as future potential and I will be ranking them as More Depth, Huh?, Shoot for Stars, and Moneyball Madness.

More Depth, Huh? 

Cubs:

LHP Kyle Freeland 

RHP German Marquez 

$20 Million 

Rockies: 
C/1B Haydn McGeary
SS Ed Howard

The Cubs added 2 starters in what was deemed a Fair Deal in the algorithm. 

German Marquez, 30 years old – Marquez, is in the last year of his deal and making $10 million. Although he is 0-2 with a 4.6 ERA this season and has been injury-ridden, making only 8 starts since 2023, he’s a former All-Star who, if healthy, can add a boost to the rotation. He has averaged over 7.5 Ks per 9 in his six healthy seasons. 

Kyle Freeland, 32 years old – Freedland is signed through 2026 with a vesting option for 2027 at $12.9 million AAV. Freeland is more finesse than power but he does have a 7.8 WAR season under his belt back in 2018 and has made over 20 starts a season in every full season during his career. Freeland is 0-3 and has a 4.88 ERA thus far, but his numbers aren’t nearly that bad he has a 1.2 WHIP (walks and hit per inning pitched) and is showing great control, only walking 2 in 24 innings so far. The Rockies are kicking in $20 Million in cash to get something back instead of just doing a salary dump.

Rockies Receive:

C/1B Haydn McGeary, 25 years old – Currently in AA, McGeary stands at 6’5” and 235 pounds. McGeary showed his power by hitting 31 homers over the last 2 seasons, the Rockies don’t have either a catcher or 1st baseman in their top 10 prospects according to MLB.com rankings so his inclusion makes sense here.

SS Ed Howard, 22 years old – Howard, a former 1st-round pick in 2020, seems to have stalled out in his production just this year getting his first taste of AA and hitting only .167. Howard has been passed in the pecking order by other infielders so he’s expandable and being a former 1st-round pick, he could be a reclamation project for another organization. The Rockies only have 1 middle infielder in their top 10 so he also makes sense for them.

Shoot for the Stars 

Cubs: 

RHP Drew Rasmussen

Rays: 

RHP Javier Assad
OF Kevin Alcantara 

This trade was deemed a Moderate Overpay by the Cubs, however, It’s the cost of doing business in the deep end of the pitcher pool. 

Cubs Receive: 

Drew Rasmussen, 29 years old – The righty pitcher is under contract for $4.5 million AAV through 2026 with a team option for 2027. Rasmussen has only thrown over 140 innings in his career but he’s averaged over 7 K’s per 9 and has posted an under 1.1 WHIP in every season since 2021. Being under a very friendly cost-controlled deal is the type of deal Jed Hoyer likes although it’s an overpay. He’s off to a great start this season having a 1-0 record with just a .60 ERA in 3 starts. 

Rays Receive: 

Javier Assad, 27 years old – The righty swingman has been hurt since spring training with an oblique strain, but he’s expected back after a few rehab stints. Assad has pitched in the rotation and out of the pen. He can slot right into the Rays’ rotation and although they have 2 pitchers in their organization’s top 10, neither has been above AA. 

Kevin Alcantara, 22 years old – The 6’6” outfielder is the 86th-ranked prospect in the MLB.com top 100. Alcantara is currently blocked by Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker in the corner outfield, and Pete Crow-Armstrong in CF. Although he has plenty of promise hitting at least .270 and 13 homers in every minor league season since 2022, he doesn’t have a clear path and the Rays love cost-effective players with potential. To get a pitcher like Drew Rasmussen, the Cubs would have to overpay a bit and unload one of their top upside prospects. 

Moneyball Madness

This one is complex and came out as a Fair Trade with the Yankees help which I feel is a more realistic option then a Cubs solo quest, The Cubs have little chance of landing a pitcher like Sandy Alcantara without a little help. Unless they want to give up 3-4 of their top pieces and a major league ready piece for just Sandy Alcantara, this is also a fair trade but I’m unsure if Jed & Co have the stomach for it. 

The Yankees have pieces they have been looking to move, giving the Yankees and Marlins pieces from their treasure chest of prospects gets the Cubs perhaps the top pitcher on the trade market and in this case another higher end pitching prospect.

Cubs Receive: 

Sandy Alcantara, 29 years old – The righty starter would plug directly into the top of the Cubs’ rotation giving them a starter with at least an All-Star and potential CY Young upside. Alcantara is signed through 2026 with a team option for 2027 and has an $11.2 million AAV. Alcantara has been a workhorse in his career throwing over 180 innings and having 2 seasons with over 200 K’s. He’s coming back from Tommy John surgery and is 2-0 with a 4.7 ERA in 3 starts, but if he shows he can find his old form within the next month or so then I expect a bidding war come July for his services. 

Brock Selvidge, 22 years old – The 6’3” lefty is the Yankees’ 9th-ranked prospect. He hasn’t pitched above AA and could profile better as a relief pitcher as his slider is rated 55 out of 80. 

Yankees Receive: Owen Caissie, 22 years old – The lefty outfielder is the 50th-ranked prospect in the MLB top 100. He hit 19 homers to go with his .278 AVG in AAA last season, He could see time in the Yankees outfield as soon as this season or early next season as OF/1B Cody Bellinger is an impending free agent.
James Triantos, 22 years old – The utility man is listed as the 69th-ranked prospect, he hit .300 with 47 stolen bases across AA and AAA last season. He’s blocked here as far as playing the infield goes so if he continues to hit he will be a very valuable piece come the trade deadline. 

Marlins Receive from Yankees: 

OF Spencer Jones – 2nd ranked Yankees Prospect RHP Ben Hess – 3rd ranked Yankees Prospect SS Oswald Peraza – MLB bench player hitting .267 UTL Oswaldo Cabrera – MLB starter hitting .278

Marlins Receive from Cubs: 

Cade Horton, 23 years old – The Cubs’ top pitching prospect and 48th overall a 6’1” power righty has all the makings of a top-line starter if his health holds up. Having pitched less than 130 innings total since he was drafted in the 1st round in 2022, that is the only question as the other tools are there. He possesses a 70-rated Slider on an 80 scale to go with his 60-rated Fastball. Losing him would sting but getting someone like Alcantara will not be painless. 

Jordan Wicks, 25 years old – Wicks, a former 1st-round pick in 2021, has been a starter in the league with 17 games under his belt in stints in 2023 and 2024. He’s under team control through 2029 and could slot right into the Marlins rotation. 

So out of these three different scenarios which one would you do if you were the Cubs? Give up less and hope for more production and better health from the Rockies pitchers? Take a chance on Rasmussen and his upside with cost control but feeling a sting giving up on Alcantara and his potential? Or get a little crazy and throw in a 3rd team to land the biggest fish (pun intended) in Alcantara but you’d give up many assets. On the upside, you’d have the potential to replace if not exceed Justin Steele’s production and you’d have a pitcher who could compete for a CY Young locked in through at least 2026 and you’d carry a team option for 2027. 

I’d choose the Rasmussen deal, it’s a good middle ground and you aren’t selling the farm leaving pieces to fix other holes on the roster. However, the Alcantara deal is intriguing, the Cubs would have to give up 3-4 top prospects or MLB-ready players. I’m not sure they have the stomach for it, do you? We’d love to hear who you’d want them to acquire in the comments below!